ICYMI: Warmington Campaign Highlights Ayotte’s Vulnerabilities, Path to Take Back Corner Office

Jul

2026

in the news

ICYMI: Warmington Campaign Highlights Ayotte’s Vulnerabilities, Path to Take Back Corner Office

MANCHESTER, NH — In Case You Missed It, the National Journal highlighted a new memo from the Cinde Warmington campaign showing how Kelly Ayotte’s record-low approval ratings, coupled with a challenging political environment for Republicans and growing grassroots momentum for Democrats, provide a clear pathway for Cinde to take back the corner office.

The Granite State didn’t make Hotline’s power rankings, but 2024 candidate Cinde Warmington’s (D) campaign argues the race is in play given Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s (R) low approval ratings, a worsening national environment for Republicans, and her support of Trump.
In a memo first shared with Hotline, Warmington’s campaign outlines that Ayotte has the worst approval ratings of a first-term New Hampshire governor in more than 30 years, according to the latest UNH Survey Center poll.
And while Ayotte's campaign is up with negative TV ads, the latest polling has Warmington within five points of her, without the Democrat’s campaign spending on advertising yet, the memo outlines. (Hotline reporting)

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To: Interested Parties
From: Andrea Cervone, Campaign Manager
Date: July 22, 2026
MEMO: Cinde Warmington Can Take Back the Corner Office

Data shows that Kelly Ayotte is in trouble. Record-low approval ratings, coupled with a challenging political environment for Republicans and growing grassroots momentum for Democrats, provide a clear pathway for Cinde Warmington to take back the corner office. Cinde is already within five points of defeating Kelly and is on track to close the gap before Election Day.

Cinde Warmington is already within five points of defeating Kelly Ayotte, with a clear path to taking back the Governor’s office. June UNH polling now puts this race at 44%-39%.

The UNH polling corresponds with earlier polling from GBAO that also found a single-digit race. And once voters hear a balanced profile exercise, Warmington closes in just one point back (47%-48%). Once those same voters hear about Ayotte's record as governor, Warmington takes the lead outright, 50%-44%.

Kelly Ayotte is New Hampshire’s weakest first-term incumbent in more than 30 years. Ayotte has the worst approval ratings of first-term New Hampshire governors in more than 30 years — including one-term governor Craig Benson. The latest June UNH polling shows that Kelly Ayotte is now at 47% approval/45% disapproval. Just 38% of Granite Staters have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, while 42% have an unfavorable opinion of her. With numbers like this — in a national environment where Republicans are expected to perform poorly — Ayotte is vulnerable.

The barrage of negative attacks lodged by Kelly Ayotte have not had an impact on Cinde — and in fact, Cinde has gained ground. This five-point race exists before the Warmington campaign had spent a dollar on paid advertising, and after Ayotte's campaign dumped a wave of negative TV attacks on her.

Kelly Ayotte is failing Granite Staters on the issues that matter most. Recent public polling shows that Kelly Ayotte continues to get failing scores on the issues motivating voters, including housing, taxes, and the cost of living. Only 28% of Granite Staters approve of Ayotte’s ability to address the housing crisis, while just 27% approve of her handling of the cost of living.

Kelly Ayotte’s support of Trump will cost her votes with Granite Staters. Kelly has tied herself to a president dragging her down further. After having pulled her endorsement of Trump in 2016, Ayotte has now called him the "right choice." That's a liability in a state where Trump's approval has sunk to its lowest point in nearly a decade.

Cinde continues to generate grassroots-powered momentum in this race. With no primary to fight, every dollar and every hour has gone toward defeating Kelly this November. In under four months since launching her campaign, she's raised more than $600,000 — 92% from Granite Staters, and 72% of contributions were $100 or less.

Recent election results show that New Hampshire Democrats are on track to win. In November, New Hampshire Democrats won municipal elections all across the state, which included sending a majority to the board of aldermen in Manchester and Nashua.

In special elections across the country, Democrats are continuing to outperform. This includes Bobbi Boudman’s victory in March, when she flipped a Trump +9 State House district that Republicans previously carried by 13 points.

BOTTOM LINE: In this Trump-midterm cycle, with a deeply unpopular president and voters hungry for change, Kelly Ayotte is exposed. This is the sleeper race of the cycle — and the evidence of a Cinde Warmington upset keeps growing.