NEW: Five Weeks Out: Cinde Warmington’s Path to Victory

To: Interested Parties 
From: Andrea Cervone, Campaign Manager
Date: September 28, 2026
Memo: Five Weeks Out: Cinde Warmington’s Path to Victory

After months of Kelly Ayotte spending more than $2 million on attack ads, Ayotte has failed to pull away and is facing a four-point race with just five weeks to go. Meanwhile, Cinde Warmington has cut the deficit by more than half since UNH previously polled in August. 

Ayotte’s slim lead, coupled with a deeply unpopular president at his lowest approval across two terms, give Warmington a clear path to be elected New Hampshire’s next governor. Ayotte has carried some of the weakest approval ratings of any first-term New Hampshire governor in more than 30 years — right on par with one-term Governor Craig Benson. 

Democrats have a real edge in the environment. Public polling shows Democrats with a 11-point generic congressional ballot in New Hampshire. Trump is a heavy anchor dragging down Ayotte: his net approval in New Hampshire is underwater by a historic -35 — 32% approve, 67% disapprove — and is at its lowest point in either of Trump's terms in office.

The September primary demonstrated another clear indication of the state’s political environment. Cinde Warmington received 26,000 more votes statewide than an incumbent governor: 126,223 votes for Warmington to Ayotte's 100,920. It's part of a broader turnout story: Democrats had a 59%-41% edge to Republicans in the U.S. Senate primary.

BOTTOM LINE: This is a persuadable electorate, frustrated by Donald Trump and an incumbent governor who have done nothing to lower the cost of living. New Hampshire’s independent voting bloc is not known for making up its mind early, and the persuadable electorate leaves room for significant movement in the last five weeks. The New Hampshire governor’s race is the sleeper of the cycle, and the case for a Cinde upset keeps growing.